Memmories

So! Is it over? well the real fun began the second the results of the election were pronounced: Obama wins...Now political junkies are in heaven, they have to look forward to 2010, 2012 and beyond. These are few things I expect them to do:
1- Get an AxelRod manual to add to the Rove one.
2- Drop the single issue voters for the diverse coalition.
3- Court the young vote more carefully.
4- Focus on the new found Democratic Values: hard work, equality and environmental protection.
5- Focus on the newly redesigned Republican Values: Fiscal conservatism, individualism and homeland security.
6- Focus more technology in campaigning.
I cannot finish and let go of this blog without mentioning what I think was the decisive factor in this election, pragmatism. This new generation votes less on race or gender, are well informed , have a global perspective, and are technolgy savvy, and well involved. Obama knew how to make the populous involved in the back and forth, listen and act communication process needed to built trust. Obama's campaign built a movement where people felt like they were part of something bigger than themselves. They first contributed, then they organized, then they got out the vote.... what is next?...We will see if Obama can put this movement to work , or if the Republicans are gonna use the same strategy for the future. It will be fun to watch. Now it is just like Football, a lot of stats, predictions, and a huge fan base.

Boomers, Jonesers , Xers, Millennials.

Generational change!..Well, the GI generation fought WWII and then produced baby boom generation (born 1945-1955), 31 million of them now, lived through the civil right movement and the Vietnam war, very idealistic and hard workers. Then came generation Jones (born 1956-1964), 37 millions, less idealistic and more pragmatic, they saw Nixon's failure,80s Reaganomics,and found themselves on the unemployment lines in 1989. Next is Generation X (born 1965-1980), 34 millions, skeptical and realistic, born to two salary families flagged with divorces and recessions, this generation saw the lowest birth rate ever and statisticians added 5 more years to their accumulation average of 10 years per generation to correct their data. And lastly, the millennial generation (born 1980-1990), 78 millions, the largest, most diverse and well informed. They were born in time of prosperity and globalization, world markets, the Internet. However, they saw wars, world economic meltdowns, and will most likely experience their first ever recession this year.
How does this matter now?.. OK! people vote with a retrospect to their experiences, and then make judgement on the prospect. Others do the reverse. It all depends on how long they perceive themselves to be in life, beginning, middle, or close to the end. Simple!. Not really, this election 2008 year brings the McCain GI and Boomer generation vs. the Obama Jones, X and Millennial generation. The hard worker, idealistic and traditional era vs. the pragmatic, diverse, and globally connected new era. For instance, IBD/TIPP polling and research website reports that the decisive factor this season are women 25-50 yrs old who are voting 50% for the Democratic ticket vs. only 43% for the Republican ticket. This is the largest disparity among any specific groups who traditionaly vote. How about the Young Vote? The fact is that the Millennial generation is following on the trend of the Jones and X generations aligning themselves by 52% Democratic vs. 41% Republicans. Can you say "Realignment" !

The Great Equalizer

The Internet is dubbed by some as the GREAT Equalizer. In a sense it is obvious on its face value, it gives all of web browsers a chance to be informed and to contribute back to this growing medium. As one googles, youtubes or wiki any piece of info about the campaign, one gets national media, PACs, pro and cons, these are the PROS. And then you get the MASSES, with their YOUTUBES, MYSPACES and BLOGS.... now who is bigger? or most importantly who can change voter behavior?...One obvious answer is that the Media is past the early format that can be controlled by the campaigns. Historically, big media only embodied Newspapers,TV and Radio.
Now what is at play is a factor which many political scientists can't agree on yet: GENERATIONAL CHANGE. I'll explain: when the campaign uses the net to collect contributions, organize rallies and vote drives, it sounds like usual, normal,old politics. However, the Internet has allowed a new generation to express itself through homemade videos, blogs and fact checking that are almost instantaneous and accurate, then it does its magic: spread through the net... and that is the web: it allows anyone to become part of the media by creating his own webcast or googlegroup. Now, with less control of the information that controls the behavior, any one can become his or her own 527 group.

The Fairness Doctrine.

Conservatives have News Corp with Hannity, O'Reilly, Coulter, limbaugh and the expertise of the Heritage Foundation. On the other side, the liberals have GE and Time with Olbermann, Brown, Maddows supported by political experts from Salon and the HuffintonPost. Now, the issue is How Much Influence do they both have on the voter?...well, in June 87, President Reagan vetoed the Fairness Doctrine, a policy by the FCC which insured honest and balanced coverage of candidates. The measure is now seen by conservative talk radio as a free speech impediment while the liberals point to the small numbers of corporate holders of major media outlets and how they can limit free speech. Both are valid points, yet they both agree that the Internet should be less controlled. It is possible that the system is too large, is still growing, and that they cannot control it anyway. With or without the Fairness Doctrine, it seems that the Internet has gone beyond the measure to ensure that everybody gets his or her voice heard. FoxNews might have Rove as an expert, MSNBC might have Matthews as a host, the Internet has many unaffiliated youtubers and bloggers that widen and cloud the spectrum of coverage and the issues. Now, is it too much for anyone to make a decision? How about news fatigue?...Many more questions at stake. One thing for sure! The media has become a strong part of the political arena as the "FILTER", and who ever is successful in controlling the message that passes through it will have an edge.

Change!

Change we can believe in, change you deserve, change!.. well this is the year for CHANGE. With the incumbent party down in the public opinion, the 2008 presidential election favors the opposition. However, the Republicans are trying their own spin: Reform... as the incumbent party!. It is a tall order.
This is a deviating position from the traditional conservative agenda of the GOP. And the Democrats cannot just assume the win, Campbell can't be wrong about how important the split along patisan lines still is strong. Then, the less connected independent voter would be as easily persuaded by the reform message of the GOP as by the change slogan given by the DEMs. Both parties can count on 40% of the electorates in their camp, it is a matter of running to the center and embracing some of the independent issues in the middle. Now, the DEMs are for off-shore drilling and continuity of security surveillance, and the REPs are for environment protection and downscaling of the war in Iraq. All of these issues have popular support and the demand for change on these is at stake this election year. Going forward, the economy is still a hot issue and the public is still taking sides on the steps needed to be implemented. Now both parties are causiously trying to take the popular position: however, it is not clear yet if main street is for or against The bailout.

Climate Change! The Platforms.

First, The Republican platform 2008 states:"In caring for the land and water, private ownership has been the best guarantee of conscientious stewardship, while the world’s worst instances of environmental degradation have occurred under governmental control" http://www.gop.com/2008Platform/Environment.htm
Second,the Democratic platform states:"We reject the false choice between a healthy economy and a healthy environment. Farming, fishing, tourism, and other industries require a healthy environment" http://www.democrats.org/a/national/clean_environment/
This is a contrast in how to manage a problem like global climate change. The GOP wants to let the market, private owners, and our industries to figure out what is efficient and what reduces CO2 in the atmosphere! BRILLIANT!
Wow! these guys tell me that all my studies in environmental geosciences are false. Their platform says "No" to global warming and cooling as it relates to global fossil fuel burning. It is now a fact that no one can pinpoint only one local source of pollution from one industry or one community, and then go after them to remedy this global problem. "No" to climate change as it pertains to anthropogenic sources, evolution as a paradigm for adaptation, and philosophy as a paradigm for religions.
Many ask if Obama is wrong about his ten year endeavour to curb the effect of global warming... Well, there is plenty of science and research done.. Look it up. NASA is a good source. We don't need more research. Now, it is the "apply what you learn phase", it just needs backing from the market or government.
The problem is simply GLOBAL not local. It needs federal government regulations and oversight. Climate change transcends boundaries and borders, it deals with long term problems that most industries never have on their 'yearly business forecast' sheet.

Energy and Campaign.

"In recent days I have set before the American people an energy plan, the Lexington Project -- named for the town where Americans asserted their independence once before. And let it begin today with this commitment: In a world of hostile and unstable suppliers of oil, this nation will achieve strategic independence by 2025." John McCain, June 25, 2008. The plan includes: Expanding domestic oil And natural gas exploration and production. Taking action now to break our dependency On foreign oil By reforming our transportation sector. Investing in clean, alternative sources of energy. Protecting our environment and addressing climate change. Promoting energy efficiency. Addressing speculative pricing of oil. The plan includes a $5,000 tax credit for each and every customer who buys a zero carbon emission car. $2 Billion Annually To advancing clean coal technologies. http://www.johnmccain.com/Informing/Issues/17671aa4-2fe8-4008-859f-0ef1468e96f4.htm
Obama-Biden Energy plan is as follow: Provide short-term relief to American families facing pain at the pump. Help create five million new jobs by strategically investing $150 billion over the next ten years to catalyze private efforts to build a clean energy future. Within 10 years save more oil than we currently import from the Middle East and Venezuela combined. Put 1 million Plug-In Hybrid cars -- cars that can get up to 150 miles per gallon -- on the road by 2015, cars that we will work to make sure are built here in America. Ensure 10 percent of our electricity comes from renewable sources by 2012, and 25 percent by 2025. Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050.http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/newenergy
The one difference between the plans is that Obama wants to set a Windfall Profits Tax on oil companies, a measure that McCain is against. It is also one of the major differences between the GOP and the DEMs since Carter set a similar measure into place during his presidency.

Money! IKE!

It is odd how the 77024 zip code still doesn't have full electricity after being K.O. ed after IKE!. Wow , according to the Money Trail of contributions to their elected officials, they are one of the highest concentration of private and PACs contributions to the GOP... Too bad ... FEMA and their REDCROSS MREs are not up the their culinary palates!. I happened to live about half a mile south of the infamous zip code, however my mortgage, paycheck and SSC deductions don't amount to even a day of their profits or contributions.... One last note: Houston residences along memorial drive contributed the most of any other city in the US to both DEMs and REPs. A new info for me. This area includes the highest concentration of MILLIONAIRS on this continent. Most of their assets are in Oil/Energy, land and acquisitions ( whatever that means....), legal services , securities and banking. My city contributes one of the most to both campaigns at about equal amounts, only one exception UNIONS for DEMs and ENERGY for REPs. In that case Houston would be sound and safe regardless of who is in the White House! IT's TEXAS .Big, Bold and BEAUTIFUL.

Campaign and Media.

As the polls show a tightening of the race between Obama and McCain, The media is getting ready to increase its cover of the election. CNN, ABC, NBC and CBS are dedicating increasing amount of coverages for both candidates; Yet, only 1 in 3 people on the street can name the three branches of government.... It is easy for the "MEDIA" to market their consumer goods ( ie. analysts books, more commercial for clean coal by Exxon-Mobil) ... "Information is the last thing we look for as we watch TV... it's entertainment" said a regular Joe on CNN "Street Talk" . An other political analyst said:" Politics: don't hung your hopes on it , just watch!.. the greatest Marketing of ideas to the misinformed masses.."

Republican Convention.

The campaign for John McCain finally got a day late start for the Republican convention, due to hurricane Gustav in the Gulf of Mexico. Tonight President Bush addressed the GOP delegates at St Paul, Minnesota via live feed as he highlighted the services of the republican nominee for the job of President of the United States. According to many interviews conducted by the major media covering the event, the delegates seem very enthusiastic about the Vice-President choice in Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska. However, all major television, namely ABC, NBC and CBS are covering the response of many people outside the convention to the VP choice. The ongoing investigation in the abuse of power by the Governor in Alaska, and the announcement of the Governor's teenage daughter pregnancy put a question mark about the choice. Now , the issues will be debated as we will finally get to compare the message of the Obama-Biden and the McCain-Palin tickets. Yet, if hurricane Hanna heads for the eastern coast of Florida or the Carolinas, the McCain campaign might find themselves trying to condense the message and speeches. The campaign still needs to highlight the major differences between the Republicans and the Democrats policies and direction for the next four years.